Stochastic Modeling of COVID-19 with the Impact of Vaccination Class, Using Higher-Order Spectral Scheme (preprint)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a high contagious respiratory infectious disease that has afiected millions of people worldwide. Initially, basic public health measures were implemented to control specially the spread of such virus. However, vaccination has emerged as a highly efiective strategy in combating COVID-19 and reducing its transmission. Several efiective and safe vaccines have been approved to prevent the inadvertent spread of the disease. In this study, a modeling approach is used to analyze the impact of these vaccines on the dynamics of COVID-19. By applying a higher-order numerical method, the model is solved based on reported cases in Pakistan. A spectral method is employed for the numerical solution, and the model is simulated to assess the efiects of vaccination. The Next-generation method is used to calculate the threshold quantity, known as R0, which indicates the potential for disease transmission. The study also includes a detailed stability analysis, examining the invariance properties of the model solution and discussing equilibrium points and their stability in disease-free and endemic states. Furthermore, the study presents graphical representations of the influence of special parameters on the dynamics of the pandemic.

Modeling social interaction and metapopulation mobility of the COVID-19 pandemic in main cities of highly populated Java Island, Indonesia: An agent-based modeling approach

IntroductionCoronavirus transmission is strongly influenced by human mobilities and interactions within and between different geographical regions. Human mobility within and between cities is motivated by several factors, including employment, cultural-driven, holidays, and daily routines. MethodWe developed a sustained metapopulation (SAMPAN) model, an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the effect of individual mobility and interaction behavior on the spreading of COVID-19 viruses across main cities on Java Island, Indonesia. The model considers social classes and social mixing affecting the mobility and interaction behavior within a sub-population of a city in the early pandemic. Travelers' behavior represents the mobility among cities from central cities to other cities and commuting behavior from the surrounding area of each city. ResultsLocal sensitivity analysis using one factor at a time was performed to test the SAMPAN model, and we have identified critical parameters for the model. While validation was carried out for the Jakarta area, we are confident in implementing the model for a larger area with the concept of metapopulation dynamics. We included the area of Bogor, Depok, Bekasi, Bandung, Semarang, Surakarta, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, and Malang cities which have important roles in the COVID-19 pandemic spreading on this island. DiscussionOur SAMPAN model can simulate various waves during the first year of the pandemic caused by various phenomena of large social mobilities and interactions, particularly during religious occasions and long holidays.

Impact of Covid-19 on firms' performance: Empirical evidence from India

The current study aims to examine the impact of the pandemic (Covid-19) on the financial performance of some of the selected Indian sectors. The study targets all Indian firms listed on the Bombay stock exchange, which belong to the following sectors (Constructing, tourism and hospitality, food and consumer sectors). The study extracted data of 444 firms from the Prowess database for four sectors. Due to some missing values, the study dropped 73 firms. Therefore, the final sample of this study consists of 371 firms. Results revealed a significant difference in total income, net sales, net profit, earnings per share, and diluted earnings per share before and after the pandemic in tourism, hospitality, and consumer sectors. The result of the study states that there is a significant difference in total income net sales before and after the pandemic in construction. There is a difference in the decline in both sectors' net sales and total income during the pandemic. Conversely, there is no significant difference between net profit, earnings per share, diluted earnings per share before and after the pandemic in constructing and food sectors. Results of the study state that the food sector was not affected by the pandemic, whereas the construction sector reduced its expenses to their minimum. The study also found that the tourism, hospitality and customer sectors were the most effected by the Covid-19 pandemic, followed by the construction sector and food sector, which was a minor sector affected by the pandemic. Most of the prior research on Covid-19 is theoretical, and only a few have conducted an empirical investigation. The study is unique as it evaluates the financial performance of Indian firms before and after the Covid-19 pandemic, which has not been studied yet in the Indian context. Further, this study provides valuable insights to regulators and policymakers about the most affected sectors due to the pandemic by analysing Indian sectors.

Early Fall in C-Reactive Protein (CRP) Level Predicts Response to Tocilizumab in Rapidly Progressing COVID-19: Experience in a Single-Arm Pakistani Center.

Introduction There are conflicting studies regarding the efficacy of tocilizumab use in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease. There is a special need to identify the parameters that could predict its response in early COVID-19 disease. Objective To report our experience with tocilizumab and correlate the magnitude of fall in c-reactive protein (CRP) as a predictor of its response to treatment in early COVID-19 disease. Methods All confirmed COVID-19 cases admitted to a tertiary healthcare hospital in Peshawar Pakistan, receiving ≥1 dose of intravenous tocilizumab, between March and September 2020 were included. Relevant clinical data of the patients were recorded and further divided into two categories based on the relative fall in CRP levels, 48 hours after tocilizumab administration. Adequate response (≥50% fall from baseline CRP), primary outcomes (fall in oxygen requirement and inflammatory biomarkers), and secondary outcome (all-cause mortality at day 28) were recorded. All outcomes were compared based on falls in CRP levels. Results A total of 27 patients were included. Males were 24 (88.8%) while females were three (11.1%). The mean age was 60.9±11.6 years. The mean day of illness at the time of tocilizumab administration was 4.26±3 days. After 48 hours of tocilizumab administration, 17 (62.9%) patients showed clinical improvement, with the mean SaO2/FiO2 ratio prior to treatment significantly increased (p<0.01). A significant reduction in CRP and ferritin levels was seen post-treatment (p <0.01 and p<0.01, respectively). Twenty (74.1%) patients demonstrated adequate response to tocilizumab while seven (25.9%) showed an inadequate response. Patients with adequate response had higher chances of improvement in oxygenation and lower in-hospital mortality (p-value 0.009 and 0.020, respectively). Conclusions Tocilizumab shows clinical improvement in a vast majority of patients. Being an early and sensitive predictor, a fall of ≥50% in CRP at 48 hours can be used to predict the overall response to tocilizumab as a guide to treatment.

Scrum Embedded in the Blogs Approach for Education

Worldwide technological improvements, suitable to be applied in the educational process, brough a number of useful tools that can be used by teachers for their specific teaching and learning methods. However, the classical teaching and learning methods proved to be, most of them, insufficient during this Covid-19 pandemic period. Therefore, the new events such as lockout or scenarios when half of the students attend the class in classroom (onsite) and the other half assist the class (online), have challenged professors to find “overnight” improved or totally different methods of teaching and learning. All these novel methods must be developed based on digital up-to-date tools, no matter the subject taught. This paper addresses advanced tools for teaching and learning based on blogs embedded with Scrum Agile project management methods, and integrating Augmented Reality. All these have been successfully used in education, namely teaching and learning the Electronics subject for students in ninth class of study. The outcomes, following applying these methods during these tough times, according to teachers, proved to be really useful for students who took part in this study. The students not only acquired new information, they strived for the best results and, due to the continuous and constant interest showed by teachers for them, they successfully pass the final evaluation with high grades. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Urban Fortification and the Contestation of Space: A Case Study in Kayu Putih Housing Complex

Since the tragedy of May 1998 riot in Jakarta, there have been attempts by the community to protect themselves and their properties. The efforts to add protections are achieved through fortification of the area where they live, so that it is closed and difficult to access for outsiders other than the residents. This fortification effort is against the 21st principle of The Charter of New Urbanism that encourages urban areas to be more open, letting cities become friendly places for people, inclusive, and more enliven. This principle aims to create a more dynamic contestation [1] in urban spaces as an effort to improve the livelihood of the city residents, and yet fortification as a protective effort is contradicting the very principle. The Kayu Putih area is chosen as the study area because the author has been part of the residents of the area and witness the development of the fortifications from May 1998 incident up till now, the period of Covid-19 pandemic. Therefore, this study reviews how the fortifications affect the contestation of spaces [2] within the urban setting, and sees its impact on its society [3]. This research uses qualitative method by carrying out field surveys ethnographically in order to access the phenomena and see the impacts that come up. In addition, supporting questionnaires are used to see residents’ opinions on fortification, spatial use patterns, and the impact of fortification from time to time on their daily activities and towards the urban space. This study found interesting patterns, especially on the surrounding gates, which became sort of fortresses of the compound/area. Even though the gates closed or have limited access, its existence opens other opportunities for activities, which will not appear if the gates remain open. This research hopefully helps urban designers to consider the expected security [4], as well as the social aspects of fortification and its openness, so that there would be balances between the fortification effort and the contestation of its urban space. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

A bibliometric analysis of Pubmed literature on coronavirus: all time period

In late December 2019, there are several reported pneumonia-liked cases with the new strain coronavirus in China. The World Health Organization then assigned this new disease with COVID-19. Coronavirus has been declared as the most responsible agent for a recent public health emergency (PHEIC) in early 2020. The need for further research regarding coronavirus is essential, considering its high threat of public health without any available specific antiviral or vaccine yet. The growth and development of coronavirus related research and thematic trends are still unknown. This study aimed to depict the bibliographic trend of coronavirus all time and pictured the coronavirus research patterns and dynamics throughout the years. Therefore, the objective of this study was aimed to generate a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of coronavirus infection, research topic dynamic and the development of Medical subject heading (MeSH). The study retrieved data from PubMed for the source. Pubmed is chosen because it is the biggest freely available health and medicine electronic database. The R software and Microsoft Excel used for the data analysis. For data visualization, it extracted from VOS viewer. The graph from VOS viewer used as a source for social network analysis.

Estimating COVID-19 cases in Makkah region of Saudi Arabia: Space-time ARIMA modeling.

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading across the globe. By 30 Sep 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the number of cases worldwide had reached 34 million with more than one million deaths. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) registered the first case of COVID-19 on 2 Mar 2020. Since then, the number of infections has been increasing gradually on a daily basis. On 20 Sep 2020, the KSA reported 334,605 cases, with 319,154 recoveries and 4,768 deaths. The KSA has taken several measures to control the spread of COVID-19, especially during the Umrah and Hajj events of 1441, including stopping Umrah and performing this year's Hajj in reduced numbers from within the Kingdom, and imposing a curfew on the cities of the Kingdom from 23 Mar to 28 May 2020. In this article, two statistical models were used to measure the impact of the curfew on the spread of COVID-19 in KSA. The two models are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Spatial Time-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STARIMA) model. We used the data obtained from 31 May to 11 October 2020 to assess the model of STARIMA for the COVID-19 confirmation cases in (Makkah, Jeddah, and Taif) in KSA. The results show that STARIMA models are more reliable in forecasting future epidemics of COVID-19 than ARIMA models. We demonstrated the preference of STARIMA models over ARIMA models during the period in which the curfew was lifted.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Psychological Status of Palestinian Adults in the West Bank, Palestine; A Cross Sectional Study (preprint)

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by a strain of SARS– CoV2. A lot of ministries chose mass lockdown protocol as a way to control the virus spread. One of the lockdown negative consequences is the impact of psychological status which includes a sense of boredom, confusion., psychological stress, anxiety, depression and physical effects. The purpose of this study was to assess and evaluate the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the psychological status for Palestinian adults, and to establish recommendations in order to promote and maintain psychological well-being during this pandemic. A cross-sectional study was conducted among Palestinian adults, 739 participant with mean age 31.76 filled the on-line questionnaire. Around one-third of respondents revealed having many signs of anxiety and around 42% of respondents expressed having many depression signs. Females were significantly more likely to have many depression signs, while health care workers, those who deal directly with confirmed cases of Covid-19 and who assist in providing health care for a diagnosed Covid-19 patient were significantly less likely to have many depression signs compared to others. Regarding the participants’ income, those with increased income were significantly more likely to have almost no signs of depression compared to others. However, COVID-19 pandemic has a negative effect on the mental status, the majority of participants have signs of anxiety and depression

COVID-19: Recent Findings into Emerging Coronavirus (preprint)

The emergence of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in marked as the highest pathogenic coronavirus that has crossed from the hosts to the human population in the twenty-first century. The spreading of COVID-19 in different chinese cities and around the world is travel-related viral spread with the unprecedented nosocomial outbreaks. It has also shown with high case-fatality rates, indeed to urgent prophylactic and therapeutic settings. Scientific advancements of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic allowed for rapid progress to understand the epidemiology and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2. This review highlights the the genomic structure of SARS-CoV-2 with the proposed roles of genotype and phenotype of SARS-CoV-2 in pathogenesis and discuss recent results supporting treatment strategies of COVID-19 with a special focus on how these new insights may facilitate rational development of SARS-CoV-2 for targeted therapies in the future.